Saga of Financial Markets


Last updateSat, 29 Jul 2017 12am

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Singapore Dollar 3Q 2013

Year to date till August 30, against the US dollar, Singapore dollar has fallen 4.36% from 1.2207 to 1.2764.  Brutal sell off in emerging market currencies had put Singapore in limelight – as in would it be the next target of country to be hit.  According to foreign exchange strategists, the Singapore dollar should remain “well isolated” from the heavy selling plaguing countries with external deficits such as Indonesia and India.

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Thai Government Pension Fund buying Thailand Stocks

Thailand’s Government Pension Fund with $19 billion of assets is buying Thai’s stock as Thailand’s SET Index fell for 10 days, the longest losing streak since 1998.  The index has declined more than 20% from this year’s high into bear market.  SET is valued at 11.4X estimated for the next 12 months, the lowest level since July 2012.  Thailand is Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy.

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中国经济增长几年来连续雄冠全球,A股却连续“熊冠全球”。 上证综合指数如今已从2009年8月的高位狂跌43%,市值蒸发了7480亿美元,跌幅仅次于希腊的ASE指数。否极泰来,有迹象,中国股市即将转盘。 2013-08-16,图表分析专家戴若·顾比表示上证指数整体趋势是上行,是时候开始进入市场,为多头仓位增加头寸,但应该设定正确的止损价。由于上涨需要很多新资金进入股市来推动,今年年底前上证指数不可能上涨至一万点,但年底可能涨到3000点。

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Junk Bond and Short Duration Bond

US 10-Year Treasury bonds lost almost 10% since taper talk started in May 22; US investment grade corporate bonds down 6% and junk bonds 2.5%.  To put it another way, the higher the credit rating of a bond, the bigger the loss – with the lowest-rated junk only just losing money, according to Barclay’s indices.

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The New Correlations Among Assets

There has been a barrage of recent evidence that markets may be entering a new and more complicated era, where large asset classes no longer move predictably in lock-step depending on the prevailing mood of optimism or pessimism over the global economy – i.e. we may be entering a period where evaluating the fundamentals of particular commodities or countries or individual stocks might be more effective – e.g. the US equity market over the past month, where correlations between stocks collapsed.

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