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Sat12162017

Last updateSat, 29 Jul 2017 12am

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Defaults is spreading outside commodities

The latest research from Deutsche Bank AG found that there are already signs of contagion in junk-rated debt outside of the commodities space, as evidence that the defaults of Quicksilver Inc, American Apparel LLC and Aeropostale Inc, which are from the retail sector.

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Significant New Wave of High Yield Issuance Coming

“We expect a significant wave of new issuance in late 2016 and 2017, as companies begin to address their upcoming maturities,” said Tiina Siilaberg, a Moody’s senior analyst. “However, a range of macroeconomic factors will make it more difficult for lower-rated companies to tap the debt capital markets in order to refinance their debt obligations.”

{loadposition adsense_r336x280}Those factors include rising interest rates, the widening of spreads over Treasurys, the slowdown in China and oil-price volatility. At the same time, a stricter set of rules on leveraged lending that caps debt levels will also weigh on lower-rated companies.

A record $947 billion of U.S. high-yield, or “junk,” debt, is scheduled to mature in the next five years, and some issuers may struggle to refinance it, Moody’s Investors Service warned on 2016-02-16.

Of that total, $400 billion is set to come due in 2020, the highest amount of rated debt to mature in a single year in the history of credit markets, Moody’s said in a new report.

Reference:

  1. MarketWatch, Ciara Linnane, 2016-02-16, "Junk-bond Market Facing Record Refinancing Cliff:  Moody's"

 

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下一个危机:拉美

全球经济中另一个危机-拉美,正慢慢形成。拉美全体主要国家的经济都在放缓或萎缩。  世界银行预计,拉美今年经济将创金融危机以来最差。此外,全球表现最差的股市也在这个地区。 拉美地区的最大问题:中国、商品和汇率。

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Market Outlook 2016

Here are some view of the world well-known fund managers:  Rick Rieder, Chief Financial Officer for Fundamental Fixed Income at BlackRock; Bob Michele, Chief Investment Officer for JPMorgan Asset Management; Michael Hasenstab, Chief Investment Officer for Templeton Macro; Matthew Ward, US-based portfolio manager for Schroders and David Harding, Winton Capital Management.

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Biggest Outflow in Emerging Markets Since the Financial Crisis $9.3B

Emerging Markets suffered $9.3B outflow in the week to Thursday (2015-06-11), the most since the depths of global financial crisis in 2008.  Of the $9.3B, $7.1B came from Chinese equity funds, which had previously seen three weeks of robust inflows including a record $4.6B in the last week of May.  Global EM Funds saw $829M of withdrawals, while Latin America funds lost $442M.

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