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Greece's Crisis 2015

Greece’s crisis is re-surfacing.  If there is no agreement with creditors on 2015-05-12, Greece may not necessarily lead to default, or euro exit.  Greece can continue on without a deal until possibly 2015-07-20 when ECB loan repayments come due, analysts from HSBC to BofAML say; capital controls and a parallel currency may allow the country to carry on for a few months before reality sinks in.

Here are some of the important timing to take note:

  1. 2015-05-06 | Discussing with ECB to raise haircuts on Greek collateral, same day Greece has to pay back €201 million in IMF loans interest.
  2. 2015-05-12 | Payment to IMF - Greece may have enough cash to meet this.
  3. 2015-07-20 | Bond Redemptions to ECB - Greece won't be able to pay ~€7 billion in interest payments and bond redemptions to the ECB without a deal.

Reference

  1. Bloomberg, Deborah Hyde, 2015-04-29, "Can Greece Default and Keep the Euro?"