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Market News
China to Free Up 1 Trillion Yuan
2021-07-09, the People’s Bank of China cut its reserve requirement ratio (RRR)for financial instiutions from 2021-07-15 by half a percentage…
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Market News
Quant is Wiring up Bond Market
The work-from-home era is fueling a surge in electronic bond trading with the quant revolution that is likely to sweep…
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Market News
南北资金流向将有新格局
截止到7月9日收盘时,年内北向资金(从香港市场流到A股市场的资金)累计净买入2,233.78亿人民币,南向资金(内地投资者通过港股通买入香港联交所股票的资金)累计净买入3,713.9亿人民币。 从下图中可以看到虽然年后上证指数跌幅较大,但年内北向资金累计净买入一直处于平缓上升的状态,其曲线的斜率基本不变。南向资金累计净买入从年初到二月上旬之前快速上涨,原因是这段时间恒生指数走势较强。二月中旬以后恒生指数陷入弱势震荡,同期的南向资金累计净买入几乎陷入停滞状态。从上半年资金流动的特点来看,北向资金喜欢抄底,南向资金偏爱追高。 2021上半年南向资金累计净买入大幅领先北向资金(多维自制) 自2014年11月17日中国大陆和香港股市互通以来,恒生指数上涨了14.1%,上证指数上涨了42.5%。上证涨幅虽然远超恒生指数,但两者的吸金能力却刚好相反。 两岸股市互通以来港股对大陆资本的吸引力非常强(多维自制) 上图是中国大陆和香港股市互通以来,“北向资金累计净买入”减去“南向资金累计净买入”的曲线图(下文简称轧差曲线)。从图中可以明显看出,轧差曲线大多数时候位于纵轴的负数部分,说明香港股市比中国大陆股市更具吸引力。究其原因,香港证券市场比沪深两市法制监管健全,投资者更专业,并且具有相当大的低估值优势,所以长久以来资本对港股的青睐要超过大陆股市。另外香港IPO制度对企业更友好,很多大陆明星企业都去香港上市,这些企业本身就自带“流量”。 Reference: 多维新闻, 2021-07-09, 《拐点已现 南北资金流向将有新格局》
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Market News
Foreigners Buying China Debt
Global investors made their biggest ever purchases of Chinese municipal debt in June, an indication of growing confidence in a…
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Market News
大量资金仍在准备进入美股
高盛近期提及,大量资金仍在准备进入美股。该机构分析称,家庭部门的需求是一季度股票最大的净买入来源,总计净买入1720亿美元。高盛目前已将2021年全年家庭部门净买入总额的预测从3500亿美元上调至4000亿美元,估计目前家庭部门将44%的资产配置在股票上,略低于2000年“科网泡沫”历史峰值的46%。 此外,任何通胀持续上升的迹象都将有利于股票,而非债券或现金。数据显示,创纪录的5.5万亿美元现金 正在场边观望。 Reference 第一财经, 2021-06-24, “纳指突破历史高点,美联储或是“披着鹰皮的鸽”
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Market News
Spread between 5 and 30 Year Notes Tumbled
The spread between five- and 30-year notes tumbled last week to the narrowest for the year after the Fed projected…
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Market News
Japanese Stocks Slump
The Nikkei 225 surged 82% from its pandemic-selloff low to a 30-year high in February, as investors rushed into cyclical-heavy…
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Market View
What happened when Debt is Cheap?
There has been a record pace of credit-rating upgrades, with nearly twice as many upgrades of junk-rated companies compared with…
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Market News
Taper in late 2021?
Federal Reserve officials this week could project interest-rate liftoff in 2023 amid faster economic growth and inflation, but they won’t…
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Market News
美国逆回购额破纪录发出重要信号
美国纽约联储局的数据显示,6月9日联储局的隔夜逆回购(ON RRP)规模达到5,029亿美元,连续三天创纪录高点。与中国央行通过逆回购操作向市场投放资金不同,美国联储局的逆回购是从市场回笼资金,也就是说,美国联储局每天从市场回笼的资金越来越多。 出现这种情况的主要原因是美国联储局通过购买国债等方式向市场投放了大量美元导致市场流动性异常充裕,而国债类的抵押物严重不足。目前,联储局仍以每月1,200亿美元的速度向市场投放流动性,而逆回购规模的攀升其实是市场以自己的方式告诉联储局,量化宽松已经足够了,过量的流动性已经成为市场的负担。 超发的美元不仅推高了物价也令资产价格“水涨船高”。目前,美国三大股指均处于历史高位。当前美股总市值与美国GDP的比重已经接近200%,而以“股神”巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的标准,一旦该指标超过120%,便表明市场被高估。 曾经的联储局主席、如今的财政部部长耶伦(Janet Yellen)甚至提出加息。耶伦表示,“过去十年来,我们一直在与过低的通胀和利率作斗争,我们希望回到正常的利率环境。如果这有助于缓解一些情况,那么就不是坏事,而是一件好事。” 不断攀升的隔夜逆回购规模已经用事实表明美国经济已经不需要继续“注水”了。考虑到当下通胀水平上升、资产泡沫堆积,市场应当警惕联储局在6月15日和16日的议息会议上停止每月1,200亿的资产购买计划。因为,停止购债是联储局调整货币政策的开始,缩表和加息将陆续到来。这意味着信用周期将从扩张转向收缩,所有资产的定价都将因此受到影响。 Reference: 多维新闻,2021-06-13,“市场流动性过剩 美国逆回购额破纪录发出重要信号”
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Market View
China Tech Crackdown Cycle Ending
China’s rapid-fire moves to curb anti-competitive practices by more than 30 technology firms have rattled investors, leaving them uncertain about…
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Market News
US Bond Spreads hit Lowest Since 2007
U.S. high-grade bond spreads fell to a 14-year low Friday as investors temper their inflation projections and grow bullish on…
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Market View
India Rally Even as Virus Surge
India is attracting all the global attention for the worst virus outbreak but the pandemic has done little to dent…
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Market News
Europe Leading the World
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index of eurozone blue-chips is up 13% so far in 2021, outperforming the S&P 500 in…
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Market News
Treasuries’ Volatility Slump
The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which tracks implied price swings in Treasuries over the next month, is around its lowest…
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Market View
China’s RMB To Appreciate?
The threat of inflation — coupled with a fragile economy — tends to be bad news for stocks because of…
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Market News
Hang Seng Index Overhaul
Hang Seng Indexes Co. announced its biggest-ever overhaul in March, which includes boosting the total number of components to 80…
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Market News
Mexico – Monetary Easing Cycle Over
A member of Mexico’s central bank, known locally as Banxico (Bank of Meixco) board said there’s no room for further…
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