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How the Market react after yield curve inverts?

The most widely watched gauge of the yield curve’s slope, the spread between the 2-year Treasury note yield and the 10-year inverted on 2019-08-14.

This is how the market S&P 500 would react after a yield-curve inversion over different time horizon:

On average, the S&P 500 has returned 2.5% after a yield-curve inversion in the three months after the episode, while it has gained 4.87% in the following six months, 13.48% a year after, 14.73% in the following two years, and 16.41% three years out:

Data from LP Financial also reaffirm the tendency for markets to trend higher in the long term.


MarketWatch, Mark Decambre, 2019-08-14, “After the yield curve inverts — here’s how the stock market tends to perform since 1978”

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